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19.11.2019 20:18

The great Brexit gamble – Rabobank

Stefan Koopman, the senior Market Economist at Rabobank, notes that an election will be held on December 12 and the UK Prime minister Johnson is looking for a five-year mandate and a parliamentary majority for his Brexit-deal. It is easier for Johnson to win a parliamentary majority in an election than to win a popular majority in a People’s Vote, Koopman adds.

  • “Assuming that clarity on Brexit is the only thing that is broadly desired, party allegiances could potentially break down. The election will be dominated by tactical voting.
  • If Johnson’s bet pays off, the new parliament will be able to pass Johnson’s existing deal. “Brexit” will then move to the tricky negotiations regarding the future relationship.
  • But if Johnson’s bet backfires, the plot will twist again. A minority government led by Labour could lead the UK to a second referendum, and potentially a Remain outcome.
  • The first scenario appears more likely, but opens up the risk of a no-deal Brexit at the end of 2020. A Tory majority may therefore bring plenty of scope for sterling volatility next year.”



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