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04.11.2019 20:01

U.S.-China trade: Reasons to expect a "great" deal – Standard Chartered

David Mann, the global chief economist at Standard Chartered, expects only positive news on U.S.-China trade through the next 12 months.

  • “Of all the factors that we can think of to help Donald Trump’s re-election prospects, avoiding a 2020 recession is high on the list. We assume that he would want a strong story to tell on the 2020 campaign trail about China, rather than being in the truce phase that currently prevails. This story could either be a "great deal" or a worsening trade war that would risk weakening the economy further. We see more reasons for Trump to take the less risky option of a "great deal".
  • Fiscal policy will barely support US growth in 2020, in our view. Monetary policy has already been loosening; we forecast another 25bps cut in December 2019. Trump’s main "direct controllable" is trade policy. If a series of positive surprises on trade are delivered between now and the November 2020 elections, he could spin this as a "victory" in the trade war – something that was a major component of Trump’s presidential campaign platform in 2016. A plausible scenario could be for a quid pro quo on tariff reductions in return for China to push the Chinese yuan (CNY) stronger, a reversal of what was seen since 2018.”



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