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11.09.2019 15:40

Chinese yuan could hit 7.3 per dollar by the end of the year - CLSA Chief Economist

The Chinese yuan is set to weaken further against the dollar as trade tensions between the United States and China continue, according to CLSA Chief Economist Eric Fishwick.

Fishwick predicts the yuan will reach around 7.3 per dollar by the end of the year. On Wednesday morning, the yuan traded around 7.1225 against the U.S. currency on the Chinese mainland.

“Looking at how the currency trades, it is very clearly demonstrated that it is being used as a way to offset the effects of tariffs,” Fishwick told. “So, the yuan is allowed to weaken whenever the U.S. ratchets the tensions higher.”

“I think that the forces that are pushing the yuan lower are still in place,” he added.

The yuan has been closely watched by investors, economists and other market watchers in recent months because it is seen as one of the tools China can use in response to rising U.S. tariffs.

Last month, the currency weakened past a psychologically important level of 7 against the greenback. A weaker yuan, which is also known as the renminbi, would make China’s exports relatively cheaper on the international markets. The U.S. has repeatedly accused Beijing of keeping its currency weaker in order to gain a trade advantage over its competitors.

Going into 2020, the yuan could be modestly stronger because of the U.S. dollar, according to Fishwick. “Looking into next year, for the first time in a long time, we’re able to talk about the prospects for the dollar weakening again,” he said. The U.S. economy is going to slow further as the effects from earlier tax cuts wind down, he said.


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