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03.09.2019 15:40

UK politics amongst market movers today – Danske Bank

Analysts at Danske Bank note that focus is again on Brexit with the UK House of Commons returning to the session and it looks like we are heading for a snap election sooner than expected.

  • “Today there will be an emergency debate on a bill trying to force PM Johnson to ask and accept another Brexit extension until 31 January in case no deal is reached no later than at the EU summit 17-18 October. A government official has said PM Johnson will start the process for 14 October general election if he loses the vote (needs two-third majority). PM Johnson will make a public statement at 19:00 CEST.
  • A key economic release today is the US ISM manufacturing survey for August. Weighted regional PMIs suggest that ISM manufacturing is set to come in stronger, but Markit PMI suggests a decline. We expect ISM manufacturing to fall slightly to 50.8 but given the mixed signals it is not a high conviction call.
  • The ISM survey is one out of a few important gauges for Fed policymakers ahead of the crucial September meeting in two weeks. Tonight we will hear Fed's Rosengren's (voter, hawk, dissented first cut) views on the US economy and Fed policy.”


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