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07.06.2019 18:51

U.S. NFP likely to print 140,000 for May - TDS

Analysts at TD Securities say that Wednesday’s ADP Employment report surprise of 27,000 was enough of a miss, nearly 160k below consensus to convince them to reduce their forecast for Friday's nonfarm payroll release to 140,000 for May, from their earlier estimate of 190,000.

  • “This soft but not concerning print follows an eye-popping 263k print in the previous month. As such, we would view a number in this mid-100k range as an overdue correction to an unsustainable run rate for payroll growth, rather than the leading edge of a sharp slowdown in economic activity — although we recognize markets will take little comfort in the event.
  • All in, the household survey should show the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.6% for May, while wages are expected to rise 0.2% m/m.”


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