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06.06.2019 21:41

Dallas Fed president Kaplan: Too soon to make judgement on rate cut because of trade tensions

  • U.S. has a very tight labor force
  • Trade tensions have heightened
  • Trade relationship with Mexico supports US jobs
  • Trade tensions may have a chilling effect on capital expenditures
  • Watching trade situation very carefully
  • Downside risks right now is to business confidence and capital expenditures but could start to affect hiring and therefore household spending
  • Trade with Mexico overwhelmingly in interest of US. Allows US companies to be more globally competitive
  • Trade with Mexico a very big deal because trade with that country involves intermediate goods
  • Global growth is decelerating
  • Slower global growth will spill over into US growth
  • U.S. won't be immune to global growth slowdown
  • corporate debt burden could amplify economic weakness
  • Severity of climate events may start to impact economic performance if they become more frequent
  • Fed needs to be open to learning about just how tight the labor market can become before inflation pressures become apparent
  • Disruption to jobs in US today primarily driven by technology; blaming it on globalization potentially leads to poor policy decisions
  • He sees Fed policy in the neighborhood of neutral right now
  • He expects to and year with about 2% inflation, labor market to tighten further
  • Watching credit spreads, not the stock market
  • Too soon to make judgement on rate cut because of trade tensions, but is concerned that downside risks have increased
  • He does think yield curve inversion is significant but needs to see that it has some size and some duration


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