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06.06.2019 21:07

ECB's president Draghi: Members raised possibility of rate cuts

  • Uncertainty about global trade has increased since March
  • Data about the economy are not bad
  • There isn't a substantial worsening in the outlook, that's why the extension is for seven-months
  • Drop in market-based inflation expectations is global, certainly something we take into account
  • There is no probability of deflation
  • There is still confidence in the baseline forecasts but uncertainty is prolonged and increased. We had hopes some would be removed. These risks have gained importance
  • Our readiness to act in case of contingencies was an important part of our discussions and it was more granular. 'Several' members raised the possibility of rate cuts
  • The view that we should pursue our goals in a symmetric fashion was also discussed
  • There was a long discussion about whether negative rates were hampering bank profitability that could hamper lending. So far we see no aggregate effect but it's not taken for granted there wouldn't be if we cut further, so that's why there is a mention of 'mitigating effects' in the statement
  • Financing conditions have become slightly tighter. This reflects lower stock prices, stronger euro
  • Members raised possibility of rate cuts, APP restart, further extension in forward guidance
  • The decision today was unanimous
  • Italian government's debt reduction plan has to be credible



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Market focus

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  • Earnings Season in U.S.: Major Reports of the Week
  • New car registrations in the European Union fell in June
  • Australia's leading index improved in June, but remained consistently negative - Westpac
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