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21.05.2019 18:55

RBA governor Lowe talks up rate cuts - ING

Robert Carnell the Chief Economist and Head of Research for Asia-Pacific at ING, notes the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) governor Philip Lowe said in his speech to the Queensland branch of the Economic Society of Australia that the central bank would discuss rate cuts at their next meeting. 

  • We penciled in two 25bp rate cuts by the RBA this year at our last forecast update, following on from the very weak 1Q19 inflation figures (1.3%YoY). RBA Governor, Lowe seems to agree, noting at his speech on Tuesday that inflation would not likely reach its 2-3% target range without further falls in the unemployment rate, and that achieving this would be easier with some additional monetary support.  "Given this assessment, at our meeting in two weeks time, we will consider the case for lower interest rates".
  • Why twp 25bp cuts? Well, if the argument is strong enough for one, then we figure it is probably strong enough for at least two. There are some in the market now calling for a total of 100bp of easing, though we don't believe things have come to that just yet. 
  • Our 2Q19 forecast of AUD/USD 0.69  has already been achieved, and now exceeded, with the AUD trading below 0.69 today. We clearly have to re-look at that forecast with a view to a lower trough should we get the two rate cuts we now expect. That said, markets are already aggressively pricing easing, so the additional AUD weakening may not be substantial. 


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Market focus

  • German factory orders unexpectedly fell in October
  • BOJ's Harada says no need to take additional policy steps
  • Eurozone construction activity continues to grow in November
  • Eurozone GDP up by 0.2% during the third quarter, as expected
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Forex is open 24 hours a day, 5 days a week (except national holidays), and it can be broken up to the following four regional markets: Australia and Oceania, Asia, Europe, and America. A Forex trading session opens at 23:00 GMT on Sunday in Japan and closes at 22:00 GMT on Friday in the USA.

 
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