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20.05.2019 14:41

Political risks may be supporting oil prices, but that’s likely just short term - JP Morgan

Oil prices jumped on Monday after Saudi Arabia indicated a possible rollover of output curbs amid political supply risks, but that support is likely to be short-lived due to fundamental changes in the energy industry, an expert said.

“It’s alright to talk about supply-side risks, but that’s sort of near-term ... I don’t think expectations for oil prices have actually gone up,” said Scott Darling, J.P. Morgan’s head of Asia Pacific oil and gas research.

That’s because of the rise of U.S. shale energy and slowing demand due to global economic uncertainties, Darling told. J.P. Morgan expects OPEC to extend its oil output cuts to 2020.

J.P. Morgan’s forecast for Brent crude is $75 per barrel by the end of the second quarter of 2019. For the full year, however, Brent crude will average $71 a barrel for 2019 and will weaken to $60 a barrel from 2021, said Darling.


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