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21.03.2019 17:14

ECB economic bulletin: March decisions aimed at lifting inflation towards goal

  • Global growth momentum continued to moderate in late 2018.

  • Global growth is projected to decelerate in 2019, but to stabilise over the medium term.

  • Long-term risk-free rates have declined since the Governing Council’s meeting in December 2018, in the context of a deterioration in the macroeconomic outlook and a perceived slowing of the pace of monetary tightening in the United States

  • Euro area real GDP growth remained subdued in the fourth quarter of 2018 at 0.2% quarter on quarter

  • Incoming information suggests that growth will continue at moderate rates in the near term.

  • This assessment is broadly reflected in the March 2019 ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area. These projections foresee annual real GDP increasing by 1.1% in 2019, 1.6% in 2020 and 1.5% in 2021.

  • According to Eurostat’s flash estimate, euro area annual HICP inflation increased to 1.5% in February 2019, from 1.4% in January.

  • Money growth and credit dynamics moderated in January 2019, but bank funding and lending conditions remained favourable.

  • The aggregate fiscal stance for the euro area is assessed to have been broadly neutral in 2018, but is projected to be mildly expansionary from 2019 onwards.


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