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25.02.2019 17:10

Most economists see U.S. recession by 2021 - NABE Survey

More than three-quarters of business economists expect the U.S. to enter a recession by the end of 2021, though a majority still estimate the Federal Reserve will continue raising interest rates this year.

10% saw a recession beginning this year, 42% project one next year, while 25% expect a contraction starting in 2021, according to a semiannual National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey. The rest expect a recession later than 2021 or expressed no opinion, the January 30-February 8 poll of nearly 300 members showed.

NABE members were divided on the impact of the Fed’s balance sheet normalization process. Asked about the effect of the tightening on short-term funding rates, a fifth said saw no impact, a fifth said it would raise rates by 25 basis points, and a fifth said said they would rise 50 basis points or more. The remaining respondents didn’t know or express an opinion.

A plurality of 23% expected the Fed to raise the main rate 50 basis points to 3% before beginning to cut rates. 11% said the next rate move will be an easing.


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